Will Gas Prices Go Up? Saudi Arabia to Cut Production


In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast to grow by 1.29 mb/d y-o-y, about 70 tb/d lower than last month's projection, with total world consumption to reach 100.08 mb/d. OPEC and its partners, meanwhile, are said to be considering a bigger-than-anticipated cut in production.

Oil's slide accelerated on Tuesday (Nov 13), with USA futures suffering their steepest one-day loss in more than three years due to ongoing worries about weakening global demand and oversupply. However, as has been the case recently, the talk of potential supply cuts has been quickly criticized by President Trump.

Inventories in developed nations have increased for four straight months.

WTI for December delivery dropped US$4.24 to end the session at US$55.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Traders said the selling was an extension of Monday's, which was triggered after US President Donald Trump posted a tweet meant to put pressure on Opec (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) not to cut supply to prop up prices. The contract gained 65 cents to $66.12 on Wednesday.

Oil prices have plunged more than $20 a barrel since the start of October, when Brent crude rose to almost $87 a barrel and United States benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded around $77.

A closely watched meeting between OPEC and allied producers including Russian Federation on Sunday yielded no formal change in output policy, but the producers warned that they may need "new strategies".

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"I believe a cut of 1.4 million bpd is more reasonable than above it or below it", one of the sources said.

Once the oil industry's star product, gasoline is now losing oil refineries money in Europe and has plunged in value against diesel, its main competitor. Saudi Arabia said on Monday producers need to cut 1 million barrels a day from October levels.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday OPEC agreed there was a need to cut oil supply next year by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from October levels to prevent oversupply.

The agency raised its forecast for oil output growth from countries outside the OPEC to 2.4 million bpd this year and 1.9 million bpd next year. That eased fears that new USA sanctions on Iran would cause shortages and drive prices higher.

Official storage data is due on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration, with analysts expecting a 3 million barrel rise in commercial crude inventories.

For the first half of 2019, based on its outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production, the IEA said the implied stock build is 2 million bpd.